🧭 EUR/USD – Intraday Long Setup Analysis (August 3, 2025)

🎯 Key Level of Interest: 1.14863 (0.25 retracement of the DRH → DRL move)

We're currently watching the 1.1486 area, which aligns with:

• A clearly defined Bullish Order Block (OB) to the left

• Multiple inverted Fair Value Gaps (iFVGs) providing liquidity voids

• A key retracement level (0.25) of the most recent impulsive leg

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🔍 Technical Context:

✅ 1. Market Structure Shift:

• A Bullish Break of Structure (BOS) was confirmed

• Multiple ChoCHs (Change of Character) to the upside

• Structure is now bullish on both M15 and H4 charts

✅ 2. Liquidity Sweep & Strong Rejection:

• The move from 1.1391 (DRL TYPE 2) swept key liquidity and created a Strong Low

• The fast move upward shows potential reaccumulation

✅ 3. OB + FVG Confluence:

• The 1.1486 area aligns perfectly with a refined bullish OB

• Multiple iFVGs stack up right around the same region — a strong high-probability support zone

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⚠️ Risks to Watch:

• Price is now near the NY PM session high, labeled as a Weak High — possible reaction there

• If that high holds, we may get a pullback into the OB zone for mitigation

• Invalidation occurs on a clean break below 1.1447 (PDH) or especially under 1.1391

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🧠 Trade Setup Idea:

Parameter	Value
Entry Zone	1.1486 – 1.1475
Stop Loss	Below 1.1440
TP1	1.1580 (Weak High)
TP2	1.1638 (0.75 retracement level)
Risk:Reward	Approx. 1:3 to 1:4

Confirmation Trigger: Bullish reaction or lower timeframe ChoCH (5min or 1min) at the 1.1486 zone.

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🔑 Summary:

If price pulls back into the 1.1486 bullish zone and shows a reaction (e.g., bullish engulfing, rejection wick, LTF ChoCH), a long setup becomes high probability. Confluences from OB, FVG, retracement, and market structure support the bias.

 

📉 GBP/USD (GU) Weekly Outlook – July 15–19, 2025

🔍 Price Enters Extreme Discount – Bounce or Breakdown?

After a clean break in structure and multiple bearish rejections, GBP/USD has entered extreme discount territory. Price is now testing a high-probability reaction zone near the weak low around 1.3440.

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📊 Key Technical Zones:

• 🔻 Weak Low: 1.3440

• 🔵 1H OB (HP) below weak low: Potential liquidity draw

• 🔺 Retracement Targets:

  • 0.25 = 1.3500

  • 0.50 = 1.3535

  • 0.75 = 1.3575

• 🟥 FVG resistance zone: 1.3575–1.3600

• 🧲 Draw on liquidity: Sub 1.3440 or PDH rejection area

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🧠 Base Case:

📈 Expecting a short-term bullish reaction from the extreme discount zone
📉 Bias remains bearish overall unless structure shifts decisively

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🎯 Weekly Trade Plan:

• ✅ Plan A: Watch for bullish CHoCH near 1.3440–1.3450

  • TP1: 1.3500

  • TP2: 1.3535–1.3575

• 🔁 Plan B: If price sweeps lower into OB (below 1.3440) → Look for bullish structure shift on LTF

• ❌ Invalidation: Sustained break and close below 1.3425 → opens path toward 1.3360s

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📌 Price is deep into discount, but without confirmation there is no trade. Patience for reaction setups is key.