At Stairway To Profit, we go beyond basic trading tips. Each week, we publish actionable analysis on major markets like EUR/USD, XAU/USD (Gold), Indices (GER30, US100), and Crypto (BTC/USD).

Our focus is on market structure, liquidity-based setups, and multi-timeframe execution, backed by weekly macroeconomic context such as CPI, NFP, FOMC, and ECB updates.

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2025/07/14

 



📉 GBP/USD (GU) Weekly Outlook – July 15–19, 2025

🔍 Price Enters Extreme Discount – Bounce or Breakdown?

After a clean break in structure and multiple bearish rejections, GBP/USD has entered extreme discount territory. Price is now testing a high-probability reaction zone near the weak low around 1.3440.


📊 Key Technical Zones:

  • 🔻 Weak Low: 1.3440

  • 🔵 1H OB (HP) below weak low: Potential liquidity draw

  • 🔺 Retracement Targets:

    • 0.25 = 1.3500

    • 0.50 = 1.3535

    • 0.75 = 1.3575

  • 🟥 FVG resistance zone: 1.3575–1.3600

  • 🧲 Draw on liquidity: Sub 1.3440 or PDH rejection area


🧠 Base Case:

📈 Expecting a short-term bullish reaction from the extreme discount zone
📉 Bias remains bearish overall unless structure shifts decisively


🎯 Weekly Trade Plan:

  • Plan A: Watch for bullish CHoCH near 1.3440–1.3450

    • TP1: 1.3500

    • TP2: 1.3535–1.3575

  • 🔁 Plan B: If price sweeps lower into OB (below 1.3440) → Look for bullish structure shift on LTF

  • Invalidation: Sustained break and close below 1.3425 → opens path toward 1.3360s


📌 Price is deep into discount, but without confirmation there is no trade. Patience for reaction setups is key.


2025/07/06

 

🧠 NASDAQ 100 (NQ) Weekly Outlook – July 8–12, 2025

📍Liquidity Sweep Before Expansion?

After the rejection near 23,100, NQ appears to be entering a rebalancing phase, with potential downside liquidity grabs before any continuation to the upside.


📊 Key Technical Levels:

  • 🔸 High: 23,102.50 → Major buy-side liquidity zone.

  • 🔸 Equal Lows: 22,675 – 22,725 → Potential draw on liquidity.

  • 🔸 0.75–1.00 retracement zone (from the recent bullish leg) overlaps with a clear demand area.

  • 🔸 Multiple open Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) remain above and below current price.


📈 Primary Scenario:

Bullish bias, after a potential liquidity sweep below the Equal Lows.

🔻 A downside sweep into the 22,675–22,725 zone would open up opportunities to go long on bullish confirmation, targeting:

  • 22,975 (FVG fill)

  • 23,050 (intermediate resistance)

  • 23,102+ (liquidity above previous high)


⚠️ Alternate Scenario:

If the market fails to sweep the lows and begins pushing higher early in the week, I’ll look for breakout-retest setups above 22,975 to participate in continuation plays.


🎯 Weekly Game Plan:

  • Plan A: Wait for a liquidity sweep below the equal lows, then look for a bullish reaction and structure shift to go long.

  • Plan B: In the absence of a sweep, only consider longs above 22,975 after confirmation of strength.


📌 This outlook is based on price action, market structure, liquidity zones, and FVG analysis. Not financial advice.